A new Fed analysis shows a surprising shift in who's struggling to find work
Executive Take
Job security no longer predicts who gets rehired fastest. Steady, experienced workers in AI-exposed roles are now the ones struggling most to land new jobs.
Executive Summary
A Richmond Fed analysis finds "primary workers," the 55% of the US labor pool with steady employment histories, have seen job-finding rates fall 13 points since November 2022, the largest drop of any group. Less-attached "secondary workers" fell just 2 points. Roles most exposed to AI saw the sharpest declines, and the US lost jobs overall in July.
Why It Matters
HR and technology leaders should note that AI exposure, not work history, is now the strongest predictor of who struggles to get rehired. This flips traditional workforce risk assumptions used in layoffs and hiring plans.
Bizquad Perspective
Leaders keep treating experienced white-collar staff as the safe bet, but this data says AI exposure now beats tenure as the real risk factor in hiring.